Who the hell are the undecided?
And there are still more than you think.
Tick, tock. Not much time left but 13% of U.S. voters are still undecided. That makes partisans and political junkies crazy.
Still that’s the reality according to an Axios analysis that sketched out a snapshot just a few days ago. Trump has about 40% of voters and Harris with 42%. Third party candidates capture about 5% and then there are the rest wandering around in the political wilderness. It’s rare this late in the game that the number is so large. We’ve seen it a few times. Ross Perot had people still scratching their head late in the fall of 1992. Trump’s first election forray in 2016 also found a high percentage waffling.
The Axios reporting has its skeptics. Michael Podhorzer would argue that the bloc of undecideds are much smaller. The pollster at the center for American Progress says nearly all of of them are really hard leaners to one of the candidates. A little more prodding will make them show their cards. Nate Silver says in reality the number is closer to 4% and in many ways too small to play a critical role in the outcome
My gut tells me the number is dramatically higher than normal. Remember this spring nearly 25% of Americans desribed themselves as double haters disgusted with Trump and Biden. I think that bubble is still out there. Keep in mind Arizona and Nevada, if you disagree. In both of those states independents are now the largest bloc of voters. Many still have lingering doubts about both candidates. If they disliked Biden chances are a lot of that stink is still swirling around his Vice President.
If we put the political science books back on the shelf, it may be that the undecideds just aren’t paying attention. As Amy Walter of the Cook Politial Reports told me they are like casusal NFL fans who become more intrigued as the season marches on. When Super Bowl arrives they become fanatics, but a Sunday Night broadcast in mid-October, meh.
Comedian and Podcaster Justin Young and I argue about undecided voters and political orphans in the latest episode of Lost in the Middle. He’d argue there is a simpler explanation—they are low consumers of news and social media.